This is the 43rd volume in the Occasional Paper series of the U.S. Air Force Institute for National Security Studies (INSS). This paper, while it reports the results of research undertaken across the year prior to the events of September 11 and their aftermath, presents an analysis that is both timely and relevant given those events. This important paper represents the kind of original thinking that this Institute was designed in the hope of fostering. The two authors, each of whom is individually the winner of a previous INSS outstanding research award, develop and test a systematic, targeted, and useful methodology for examining the non-state political violence and its practitioner that the United States now faces. Their analysis also is grounded in Central Asia, a new but increasingly important region to United States military interest and presence. The paper stands well on either of those legs -- a systematic methodology for violent non-state actors or a detailed and security-oriented examination of an emerging critical region. Taken together, the two legs mark it as a singularly significant work, one well worthy of serious study.